A mesterséges intelligencia munkaerő-piaci hatásai

Hogyan készüljünk fel?

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14267/VEZTUD.2022.02.06

Keywords:

technological unemployment, artificial intelligence, universal basic income, automation, scenario, job polarization

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly transforming the labour market, but this has gone almost unnoticed. Business consulting and technology firms together have encouraged the proliferation of AI solutions, based on their indisputable benefits. However, few are aware of the concept of AI itself, nor are the effects on the labour market clear. This systematic literature review fills this research gap and lays the groundwork for further research. The results detail the causes of technological unemployment and the mechanisms that can counteract it automatically or through conscious intervention. It is essential to prepare for the effects of AI at the individual, corporate and governmental levels now, and this article will help.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Bettina Boncz, Corvinus University of Budapest

PhD student

Roland Zs. Szabó, University of Győr

Associate Professor

References

Acemoglu, D. (2000). Technical change, inequality, and the labor market (Working paper, 7800) [online]. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7800

Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2010). Skills, tasks and technologies: implications for employment and earnings (Working paper, 16082) [online]. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w16082

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018a). The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1488-1542. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018b). Artificial intelligence, automation and work (Working paper, 24196). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_ papers/w24196/w24196.pdf

Ackerman, B., & Alstott, A. (2004). Why stakeholding? Politics & Society, 32(1), 41-60. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329203261096

Ahlqvist, T. (2005). From information society to biosociety? On societal waves, developing key technologies, and new professions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(5), 501-519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2004.06.001

Allen, R. C. (2017). Lessons from history for the future of work. Nature, 550(Oct), 321-324. https://doi.org/10.1038/550321a

Arnold, T., & Scheutz, M. (2018). The “big red button” is too late: an alternative model for the ethical evaluation of AI systems. Ethics and Information Technology, 20(1), 59-69. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-018-9447-7

Arntz, M., Gregory, T., & Zierahn, U. (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis (No. 189) [online]. Paris: OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en

Asimov, I. (1991) Én, a robot. Budapest: Móra.

Autor, D. (2010). The Polarization of Job Opportunities in the U.S. Labor Market [online]. Cambridge, MA: MIT Department of Economics and National Bureau of Economic Research. https://economics.mit.edu/files/5554

Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.3

Barczi, G., & Országh, L. (1966). A magyar nyelv értelmező szótára. Budapest: Akadémiai Kiadó.

Barr, A., & Feigenbaum, E. A. (Eds.) (2014). The Hand- book of Artificial Intelligence: Volume 2. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.

Baum, S. D., Goertzel, B., & Goertzel, T. G. (2011). How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(1), 185-195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.09.006

Bergman, B. (2004). A swedish-style welfare state or basic income? Politics & Society, 32(1), 107-118. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329203261101

Bergstein, B. (2018). The great AI paradox. MIT Technology Review, 121(Dec), 76-80. https://www.technologyreview.com/2017/12/15/146836/the-great-ai-paradox/

Berman, M. (2018). Resource rents, universal basic income, and poverty among alaska’s indigenous peoples. World Development, 106(June), 161-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.01.014

Bond H. Alan, & Gasser Les (Eds.). (1988), Readings in Distributed Artificial Intelligence. Amsterdam: Morgan Kaufmann. https://doi.org/10.1016/c2013-0-07700-6

Boring, E. G. (1923). Intelligence as the tests test it. New Republic, 35(6), 35-37. https://brocku.ca/MeadProject/sup/Boring_1923.html

Bowles, J. (2014). The computerisation of European jobs [online]. Bruegel. https://www.bruegel.org/2014/07/the-computerisation-of-european-jobs/

Coates, J. F. (2016). Readying children for the future. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 113(Dec), 89-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.041

Chow, K. W., & Wong, K. P. (1999). Comment: Further sufficient conditions for an inverse relationship between productivity and employment. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 39(4), 565–571. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1062-9769(99)00040-x

Crawford, K., & Calo, R. (2016). There is a blind spot in AI research. Nature, 538, 311-313. https://doi.org/10.1038/538311a

David, B. (2017). Computer technology and probable job destructions in Japan: An evaluation. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 43, 77–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2017.01.001

Davis, R. (1998). What Are Intelligence? And Why? 1996 AAAI Presidential Address. AI Magazine, 19(1), 91– 111. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1609/aimag.v19i1.1356

DeCanio, S. J. (2016). Robots and humans – Complements or substitutes? Journal of Macroeconomics, 49, 280- 291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2016.08.003

Decker, M., Fischer, M., & Ott, I. (2016). Service robotics and human labor: A first technology assessment of substitution and cooperation. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 87(Jan), 348–354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.robot.2016.09.017

Degryse, C. (2016). Digitalisation of the Economy and its Impact on Labour Markets [online]. ETUI Research Paper. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2730550

Dengler, K., & Matthes, B. (2018). The impacts of digital transformation on the labour market: Substitution-potentials of occupations in germany. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 137(Dec), 304-316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.09.024

Dirican, C. (2015). The impacts of robotics, artificial intelligence on business and economics. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 195(July), 564-573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.06.134

Ernst & Young (2017). Intelligent automation – reshaping the future of work with robots.

Fadel, C. (2014). Hype vs reality: A Roundtable Discussion on the Impact of Technology and Artificial Intelligence on Employment [online].

Fadel, C., Trilling, B., & Bialik, M. (2015). Four-dimensional education: The competencies learners need to succeed. New York: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform.

Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (20137). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114(Jan), 254-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

Garcia-Murilloa, M., MacInnes, I., & Bauer, J. M. (2018). Techno-unemployment: A framework for assessing the effects of information and communication technologies on work. Telematics and Informatics, 35(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2018.05.013

Gill, P., Marrin, S., & Phythian, M. (Eds.). (2008). Intelligence Theory: Key questions and debates. London: Routledge.

Glenn, J., & Gordon, T. J. (2004). Future S&T management policy issues – 2025 global scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(9), 913- 940. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2003.12.005

Goldin, I. (2017). The second renaissance. Nature, 550(Oct), 327-329. https://doi.org/10.1038/550327a

Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509–2526. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.8.2509

Gumbel, P. (Ed.) (2017). Jobs lost, jobs gained: work- force transitions in a time of automation [on- line]. McKinsey Global Institute.

Harari, Y. N. (2017). Reboot for the AI revolution. Nature, 550(Oct), 324-327. https://doi.org/10.1038/550324a

Haton, J. P. (2006). A brief introduction to artificial intelligence. IFAC Proceedings Volumes, 39(4), 8-16. https://doi.org/10.3182/20060522-3-FR-2904.00003

Hirsch-Kreinsen, H. (2016). Digitization of industrial work: development paths and prospects. Journal for Labour Market Research, 49(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-016-0200-6

Hortoványi, L. (2016). The Dynamic Nature of Competitive Advantage of the Firm. Advances in Economics, 4(11), 624-629. https://doi.org/10.13189/aeb.2016.041109

Hortoványi, L. & Ferincz, A. (2014). Munkahelyi tanulást befolyásoló tényezők – Humán-számítógép együttműködés vizsgálata. Vezetéstudomány, 45(10), 30-41. http://doi.org/10.14267/VEZTUD.2014.10.03

Hortoványi, L., & Ferincz, A. (2015). The impact of ICT on learning on-the-job. The Learning Organization, 22(1), 2-13. https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-06-2014-0032

Hughes, J. J. (2014). A strategic opening for a basic income guarantee in the global crisis being created by AI, robots, desktop manufacturing and biomedicine. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 24(Febr), 45-61.

Hutter, M. (2004). Universal artificial intelligence: Sequential decisions based on algorithmic probability. Cham: Springer Science & Business Media.

Jackson, P. & Al-Kofahi, K. (2011). Human expertise and artificial intelligence in legal search. In Geist, A., Brunschwig, C.R., Lachmeyer, F., & Schefbeck, G. (Eds.), Strukturierung der Juristischen Semantik— Structuring Legal Semantics (pp. 417-427). Bern: Editions Weblaw.

Jarrahi, M. H. (2018). Artificial intelligence and the future of work: Human-AI symbiosis in organizational decision making. Business Horizons, 61(4), 577-586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bushor.2018.03.007

Jiang, F., Jiang, Y., Zhi, H., Dong, Y., Li, H., Ma, S., ... Wang, Y. (2017). Artificial intelligence in healthcare: past, present and future. Stroke and Vascular Neurology, 2(4), 230-243. https://doi.org/10.1136/svn-2017-000101

Kangas, O., Jauhiainen, S., Simanainen, M., & Ylikännö, M. (2019). The basic income experiment 2017–2018 in Finland. Preliminary results [online]. http://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/handle/10024/161361

Kim, Y. J., Kim, K., & Lee, S. (2017). The rise of technological unemployment and its implications on the future macroeconomic landscape. Futures, 87(March), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.01.003

KPMG. (2017). Accelerating automation [online]. https://home.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/my/pdf/accelerating-automation-plan-your-faster-smoother-journey.pdf

Lee, J. J., Cyranoski, D., Gibney, E., Tollefson, J., Padma, T. V., Schiermeier, Q., & Nordling, L. (2016). Is science only for the rich? Nature, 537(Sept), 466-470. https://doi.org/10.1038/537466a

Levesque, H. J. (2017). Common sense, the turing test and the quest for real AI. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Loi, M. (2015). Technological unemployment and human disenhancement. Ethics and Information Technology, 17(Sept), 201-210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-015-9375-8

Luger, F. G. (2005). Artificial Intelligence: Structures and Strategies for Complex Problem Solving. Harlow: Pearson.

Makarius, E. E., Mukherjee, D., Fox, J. D., & Fox, A. K. (2020). Rising with the machines: A sociotechnical framework for bringing artificial intelligence into the organization. Journal of Business Research, 120(Nov), 262–273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.07.045

Makó, C., Illéssy, M., & Pap, J. (2020). Munkavégzés a platformalapú gazdaságban. A foglalkoztatás egy lehetséges modellje? Közgazdasági Szemle, 67(11), 1112–1129. https://doi.org/10.18414/ksz.2020.11.1112

Makridakis, S. (2017). The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society and Firms. Futures, 90(June), 46-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2017.03.006

McKinsey. (2019). Driving impact at scale from automation and AI [online]. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/driving-impact-at-scale-from-automation-and-ai#

Mitchell, T., & Brynjolfsson, E. (2017). Track how technology is transforming work. Nature, 544(April), 290- 292. https://doi.org/10.1038/544290a

Mortensen, J., & Vilella-Vila, M. (2012). The future of employment supply and demand in social europe. Futures, 44(7), 671–677. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.04.006

Nam, T. (2019). Technology usage, expected job sustainability, and perceived job insecurity. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 138(January), 155- 165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.017

Negnevitsky, M. (2005). Artificial intelligence: a guide to intelligent systems. Harlow: Pearson Education. Nilsson, N. J. (2010). The Quest for Artificial Intelligence: A History of Ideas and Achievements [online]. https://ai.stanford.edu/~nilsson/QAI/qai.pdf

Pantea, S., Sabadash, A., & Biagi, F. (2017). Are ict displacing workers in the short run evidence from seven european countries. Information Economics and Policy, 39(June), 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2017.03.002

Parijs, P. V. (2003). Basic income: A simple and powerful idea for the 21st century. Politics & Society, 32(1), 7-39. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329203261095

Pateman, C. (2003). Democratizing citizenship: Some advantages to basic income. Politics & Society, 32(1), 89-105. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329203261100

Pianta, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2000). Unemployment, structural change and globalization [online]. International Labour Organization. http://training.itcilo.it/actrav_cdrom1/english/global/art/9.htm

Pistono, F., & Yampolskiy, R. V. (2016). Unethical research: How to create a malevolent artificial intelligence. In Ethics for Artificial Intelligence Workshop (pp. 1-7). New York. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1605/1605.02817.pdf

Poole, D., & Mackworth, A. (2010). Artificial Intelligence: Foundations of Computational Agents. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Poole, D.; Mackworth, A. & Goebel, R. (1998). Computational Intelligence: A Logical Approach. New York: Oxford University Press.

Pueyo, S. (2016). Growth, degrowth, and the challenge of artificial superintelligence. Journal of Cleaner Production, 197(Oct), 1731-1736. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.12.138

Rhisiart, M., Störmer, E., & Daheim, C. (2016). From foresight to impact? The 2030 future of work scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124(Nov), 203-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.020

Russell, S. (2016). Should we fear supersmart robots? Scientific American, 2016(June), 58-59. https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0616-58

Russell, S. & Norvig, P. (2005). Mesterséges intelligencia: Modern megközelítésben. Budapest: Panem Kft.

Samuelson, P. A. & Nordhaus, W. D. (1993). Közgazdaságtan I. Alapfogalmak és makroökonómia. Budapest: Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadó.

Sántáné-Tóth, E., Bíró, M., Gábor, A., Kő, A., & Lovrics, L. (2008). Döntéstámogató rendszerek. Budapest: Panem Könyvkiadó.

Segal, M. (2018). Automatic pilots – more robotics and artificial intelligence in the workplace doesn’t have to destroy your job. Nature, 563(Nov), 132-135. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-07501-y

Silva, H. C., & Lima, F. (2017). Technology, employment and skills: A look into job duration. Research Policy, 46(8), 1519–1530. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2017.07.007

Szabó, Zs. R. (2008). Adaptációs stratégiák a kialakuló bioethanol-iparágban. Vezetéstudomány, 40(4), 28-42. http://unipub.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/4029/1/vt2008n11p54-63.pdf

Tegmark, M. (2017). Life 3.0: Being human in the age of artificial intelligence. New York: Knopf.

Titan, E., Burciua, A., Manea, D., & Ardelean, A. (2014). From traditional to digital: The labour market demands and education expectations in an EU context. Procedia Economics and Finance, 10, 269 – 274. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00302-5

Wang, P. (2019). On Defining Artificial Intelligence. Journal of Artificial General Intelligence, 10(2), 1–37. https://doi.org/10.2478/jagi-2019-0002

Warner, M. (2008). Intelligence as risk shifting. In Peter Gill, Stephen Marrin, & Mark Phythian (Eds.), Intelligence Theory (pp. 30-46). London: Routledge.

Webster, J. & Watson, R. T. (2002) Analyzing the Past to Prepare for the Future: Writing a Literature Review. MIS Quarterly, 26(2), 13-23. https://doi.org/10.1.1.104.6570.

Wilson, J., Daugherty, P., & Morini-Bianzino, N. (2017). The jobs that artificial intelligence will create: A global study finds several new categories of human jobs emerging, requiring skills and training that will take many companies by surprise. MIT Sloan Management Review, 58(Summer), 14-16.

Winick, E. (2018). Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart [online]. MIT Technology Review, 2018(Jan)

Wisskirchen, G., Biacabe, B. T., Bormann, U., Muntz, A., Niehaus, G., Soler, G. J., & Brauchitsch, B. von. (2017). Artificial Intelligence and Robotics and Their Impact on the Workplace. London: IBA Global Employment Institute (GEI).

Downloads

Published

2022-02-15

How to Cite

Boncz, B., & Szabó, R. Z. (2022). A mesterséges intelligencia munkaerő-piaci hatásai: Hogyan készüljünk fel?. Vezetéstudomány Budapest Management Review, 53(2), 68–80. https://doi.org/10.14267/VEZTUD.2022.02.06

Issue

Section

Articles

Most read articles by the same author(s)