Külföldi csődelőrejelző módszerek szisztematikus irodalomelemzése

Norbert Ágoston

doi:10.14267/VEZTUD.2022.01.06

Szerzők

Norbert Ágoston Pécsi Tudományegyetem https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6596-1783

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14267/VEZTUD.2022.01.06

Kulcsszavak:

csődelőrejelzés, szisztematikus irodalomelemzés, fizetésképtelenség, üzleti kudarc, pénzügyi nehézség

Absztrakt

A vállalati fizetésképtelenség, csőd és pénzügyi nehézség vizsgálata egy intenzív kutatási terület, amelynek számos különböző gyakorlati eljárása megfigyelhető. A tanulmány a vállalati csődelőrejelzés külföldi szakirodalmát vizsgálja, a szisztematikus irodalomelemzés módszerével. A kutatás célkitűzése kettős, elsősorban megvizsgálja a vállalati csődelőrejelzés legjobban teljesítő módszereit, másodsorban felfedi az ehhez kapcsolódó legyakoribb tényezőket, a magasan hivatkozott külföldi csődkutatások alapján. Három tudományos adatbázist felhasználva, 105 szakirodalmi cikket dolgoztak fel, amelyeket 1966 és 2017 közötti időszakban tettek közzé. A szakirodalmi áttekintés, hat módszercsalád összehasonlítását teszi lehetővé. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy a döntési fa módszercsalád fölülmúlja az SVM, a neuronháló és a hagyományos statisztikai módszereket. A közepes pontosságú módszerek közül a példányalapú módszercsalád és a logisztikus regresszió összemérésekor nem lehetett egyértelmű rangsort felállítani. A csőd tényezőinek vizsgálatánál körvonalazódott, hogy a hagyományos pénzügyi mutatók mellet alkalmazott piaci mutatók átlagosan nem vezetnek magasabb előrejelző pontossághoz, mint a csak kizárólag pénzügyi mutatókat tartalmazó modellek.

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Információk a szerzőről

Norbert Ágoston, Pécsi Tudományegyetem

PhD-hallgató

Hivatkozások

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