Did the virtual integration of stock markets impact the stock exchanges in Southeastern Europe?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14267/VEZTUD.2025.12.03Keywords:
stock market co-movements, Southeast Europe, difference-in-differences model, co-integration modelAbstract
This study investigates the impact of the SEE Link trading platform on capital market development and financial integration in Southeastern Europe (SEE). Established in 2016 with support from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, SEE Link sought to enhance market depth, liquidity, and cross-border connectivity among relatively small regional stock exchanges. Using a difference-in-differences framework complemented by correlation and cointegration analysis over a ten-year horizon, the paper evaluates the platform’s effects on market performance and integration. The findings reveal only modest outcomes: turnover ratios increased marginally, while market capitalization to GDP, traded value to GDP, and portfolio equity net inflows showed no significant changes. Short-term return correlations among member exchanges remain weak, and long-run cointegration was absent both before and after the platform’s introduction. Persistent structural, regulatory, and technical barriers–including market fragmentation, heterogeneous legal frameworks, high transaction costs, unlinked central securities depositories, and limited visibility–continue to hinder meaningful integration.
Downloads
References
Angrist, J.D., & Pischke, J.S. (2009). Mostly harmless econometrics: An empiricist’s companion. Princeton University Press.
Arakelyan, M. (2018). Foreign banks and credit dynamics in CESEE (IMF Working Paper No. 18/3). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484336779.001
Billio, M., Donadelli, M., Paradiso, A., & Riedel, M. (2017). Which market integration measure? Journal of Banking & Finance, 76, 150-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.12.002
Cohen, I., Huang, Y., Chen, J., & Benesty, J. (2009). Pearson correlation coefficient. In Noise reduction in speech processing (pp. 1-4). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-00296-0_5
Demekas, D.G., & Nerlich, A. (2020). Creating domestic capital markets in developing countries. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/33617
Demirguc-Kunt, A., Feyen, E., & Levine, R. (2012). The evolving importance of banks and securities markets (NBER Working Paper No. w18004). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w18004
EBCI. (2018). Report by the Working Group on Capital Markets Union. Vienna Initiative. http://vienna-initiative.com/resources/themes/vienna/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/VI-CMU-Working-Group-Final-Report-March-2018.pdf
EBRD. (2016, April 25). Serbia and Slovenia join EBRD- supported SEE Link. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://www.ebrd.com/news/2016/serbia-and-slovenia-join-ebrdsupported-see-link.html
Espinosa-Méndez, C., Gorigoitía, J., & Vieito, J.P. (2017). Is the virtual integration of financial markets beneficial in emerging markets? Evidence from MILA. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(10), 2279-2302. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2017.1307102
Engle, R. (2002). Dynamic conditional correlation: A simple class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(3), 339-350. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102288618487
Gjika, D., & Horvath, R. (2013). Stock market co-movements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model. Economic Modelling, 33, 55-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.03.015
Horvath, R., & Petrovski, D. (2013). International stock market integration: Central and South Eastern Europe compared. Economic Systems, 37(1), 81-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.07.004
Huo, R., & Ahmed, A.D. (2017). Return and volatility spillover effects: Evaluating the impact of Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect. Economic Modelling, 61, 260-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.021
Investing.com. (2022). SEE Link indices. https://www.investing.com
Jiang, Y., Nie, H., & Monginsidi, J.Y. (2017). Co-movement of ASEAN stock markets: New evidence from wavelet and VMD-based copula tests. Economic Modelling, 64, 384-398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.04.012
Levine, R. (2004). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence (NBER Working Paper No. 10766). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10766
Martin, A., & Taddei, F. (2013). International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions. Journal of International Economics, 89(2), 441-452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.02.003
Molnar, A., & Csiszárik-Kocsir, Á. (2022). Forecasting economic growth with the Hungarian composite stock market index – A Granger causality test. Acta Polytechnica Hungarica, 19(8), 205-227. https://doi.org/10.12700/APH.19.8.2022.8.12
Orlowski, L. (2020). Capital markets integration and economic growth in the European Union. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(4), 893-902. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.03.012
Orszaghova, L. (2015). EU enlargement: Euroisation in the Western Balkans (Part III). ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282119374_EU_Enlargement_Euroisation_in_the_Western_Balkans_Part_III
Park, C. (2013). Asian capital market integration: Theory and evidence (WPS135785, No. 351). Asian Development Bank. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2282305
Pirgaip, B., Ertuğrul, H., & Ulussever, T. (2021). Is portfolio diversification possible in integrated markets? Evidence from South Eastern Europe. Research in International Business and Finance, 56, 101384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101384
Rakocevic, R. (2016). The impact of foreign investors on the Serbian stock market. Bankarstvo, 45(3). https://doi.org/10.5937/bankarstvo1603014R
Reboredo, J.C., Tiwari, A.K., & Albulescu, C.T. (2015). An analysis of dependence between Central and Eastern European stock markets. Economic Systems, 39(3), 474-490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2015.01.002
Reininger, T., & Walko, Z. (2020). The state of capital market development in CESEE EU member states: A sleeping beauty or a dead duck? In Focus on European Economic (pp. 7-35). Oesterreichische Nationalbank.
SEE Link. (2025a). Securities. http://www.see-link.net/securities/8
SEE Link. (2025b). Statistics. http://www.see-link.net/statistics/indices/66
SEE Link. (2025c). About us. http://www.see-link.net/about-us/15
Stata.com. (2022a). Difference-in-differences estimation. https://www.stata.com/features/difference-in-differences/
Stata.com. (2022b). Dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. https://www.stata.com/manuals/tsmgarchdcc.pdf
Stoykova, A., & Paskaleva, M. (2018). Correlation dynamics between Southeast European capital markets. Economic Studies, 27(4), 49-82. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328824709_Correlation_dynamics_between_southeast_European_capital_markets
World Bank Group. (2019). Practical guide on the potential of capital markets development in small economies. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32067
World Bank Group. (2022). Global financial development database [Dataset]. World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/global-financial-development
World Bank Group. (2025). Portfolio equity, net inflows (BoP, current US$) [Dataset]. World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.KLT.PTXL.CD
Zdravkovski, A. (2016). Stock market integration and diversification possibilities during financial crises: Evidence from Balkan countries. MPRA Paper 72182. University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72182/1/MPRA_paper_72182.pdf
ZSE. (2015). Zagrebačka Burza. https://zse.hr/en/the-zagreb-stock-exchange-increased-its-stake-in-the-macedonian-stock-exchange/2495
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Corvinus University of Budapest, publisher of Vezetéstudomány / Budapest Management Review

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors assign copyright to Vezetéstudomány / Budapest Management Review. Authors are responsible for permission to reproduce copyright material from other sources.
