Változások az infláció magyarázatában
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2024_1_6Kulcsszavak:
infláció, Phillips görbe, vállalati árképzés, kibocsátási rés, munkanélküliségi rés, E31, E47, E52Absztrakt
A 2021–2022-ben bekövetkezett inflációt elemzők többsége a termékpiaci sokkokra koncentrált és nem a munkanélküliségi indikátorokra. A hagyományos elméleti keretet adó Phillips görbe szemléletet megkérdőjelezték. Az élelmiszer és energiaárak hirtelen megemelkedése mellett sok új inflációs tényező került előtérbe, így az ellátási láncokban keletkezett zavar, valamint a vírusválság kapcsán alkalmazott költségvetési kiadás és a laza monetáris politika. Ezek a tényezők a hagyományos megközelítésbe nem illenek bele. Írásunkban áttekintve az amerikai és az európai gazdaságra készült főbb írásokat azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a Phillips görbe által reprezentált elemzési keret milyen változtatásokkal alkalmazható a mai helyzet elemzésére. A Phillips görbe megközelítésben megszületésétől kezdődően jelentős változások történtek az infláció természetében bekövetkező módosulásokat tükrözve. Például a munkanélküliségi rés helyett később a kibocsátási rés került előtérbe. A mostani helyzetben a kibocsátási rés helyett a vállalati árképzés, a határköltség és a nyereségráta szerepeltetése mellett szóló indokok kerülnek előtérbe.
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