Középpontban a reziliencia. A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió mélyülésének egyes mechanizmusai

Szerzők

  • Péter Halmai Budapesti Műszaki és Gazdaságtudományi Egyetem, Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem

Kulcsszavak:

Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió, reziliencia, sokkabszorpció, kilábalási képesség, strukturális reform, E61, E63, F02, F36, F45, O43

Absztrakt

A gazdasági reziliencia, a gazdaság rugalmassága, illetve sokkokkal szembeni ellenállóképessége az európai reformfolyamatok egyik centrális kategóriája. Proaktív, illetve adaptív dimenziót, az új környezet feltételeihez történő alkalmazkodás szükségességét is tartalmazza. A tanulmány a reziliencia alapdimenzióit: a sebezhetőség tényezőit, a sokkabszorpciót és a kilábalási képességet vizsgálva megállapítja, hogy a mélyintegráció rendszerének kölcsönhatásai, szinergiái hatásfokát a konvergencia és a reziliencia egymással is összefonódó hatásmechanizmusai határozzák meg. A reziliencia megközelítése új iránytűt nyújthat a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák számára is. Az egyes tagállamok gazdasági rezilienciájának növelése révén a nemzeti szinten megvalósuló strukturális reformok is csökkenthetik az anticiklikus (nemzeti fiskális vagy közös monetáris) politikák terheit az euróövezeti gazdaságok stabilizálásában.

Hivatkozások

Aiyar, S., Bluedorn, J., Duval, R., Furceri, D., Garcia-Macia, D., Ji, Y., Malacrino, D., Qu, H., Siminitz, J., Zdzienicka, A. (2019). Strengthening the Euro Area: The Role of Natio nal Structural Policies in Building Resilience. IMF Staff Discussion Notes, SDN/19/05, https://www. imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-DiscussionNotes/ Issues/2019/06/13/Strengthening-the-Euro-Area The-Role-of-National-Structural-Reforms-in Building-Resilience-46234

Álvarez, L. J., Dhyne, E., Hoeberichts, M. M., Kwapil, C., Le Bihan, H., Lünnemann, P., Martins, F., Sabbatini, R., Stahl, H., Vermeulen, Ph.,Vilmunen, J. (2005). Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Mic ro Evidence. ECB Working Paper, No. 563, https:// www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp563. pdf

Amador, J., Cappariello, R., Stehrer, R. (2015). Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper No. 1761, https://doi.org/10.2866/129062

Arpaia, A., Kiss Á., Palvolgyi, B., Turrini, A. (2015). Labour Mobility as an Adjustment Mechanism. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 14(1), pp. 19–25, https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ publications/qr_euro_area/2015/pdf/qrea1_en.pdf

Bakker, B. B. (2015). Employment and the Great Recession: The Role of Real Wages. IMF Working Paper 15/229, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/wp/2015/wp15229.pdf

Balleer, A., Gehrke, B., Lechthaler, W., Merkl, C. (2016). Does Short-Term Work Save Jobs? ABusiness Cycle Analysis. European Economic Review, 84, pp. 99–122, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.05.007

Berti, K., Meyermans, E. (2017). Sustainable Convergence in the Euro Area: A Multi-Dimensional Process. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 17(3), https://doi.org/10.2765/563455

Brinkmann, H., Harendt, Ch., Heinemann, F., Nove, J. (2017). Economic Resilience. A New Concept For Policy Making? Inclusive Growth for Germany. 11, Bertelsmann Stiftung, https:// www.bertelsmannstiftung.de/fileadmin/files/ BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/NW_ Economic_Resilience.pdf

Caldera Sánchez, A., de Serres, A., Gori, F., Hermansen, M., Röhn, O. (2016). Strengthening Economic Resilience: Insights from The Post-1970 Record of Severe Recessions and Financial Crises. OECD Economic Policy Paper, No. 20, https:// www.oecd.org/economy/growth/Strengthening economic-resilience-insights-from-the-post-1970- record-of-severe-recessions-and-financial-crises policy-paper-december-2016.pdf

Canova, F., Coutinho, L., Kontolemis, Z. (2012). Measuring the Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors in the EU and Assessing the Role of Product Market Regulations. European Economy Occasional Papers, No. 112, https://ec.europa. eu/economy_finance/publications/occasional_ paper/2012/pdf/ocp112_en.pdf

Canton, E., Mohl, P., Reut, A., Ward Warmedinger, M. (2016). How to Make The Economic and Monetary Union More Resilient? Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 15(3), pp. 7–18, https://doi.org/10.2765/548414 (print)

Canton, E., Petrucci, M. (2017). Ease of Doing Business in the Euro Area. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 16(2), pp. 21–29, https://doi.org/10.2765/654421 (online)

Culiuc, A., Kyobe, A. (2017). Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing, IMF Working Paper, WP/17/182, Washington, https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/WP/Issues/2017/08/04/Structural Reforms-and-External-Rebalancing-45155

Cochrane, J. (1994). Shocks. NBER Working Paper, No. 4698, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/ w4698/w4698.pdf

Dhyne, E., Konieczny, J., Rumler, F., Sevestr, P. (2009). Price Rigidity in the Euro Area – An Assessment. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 380, https://doi.org/10.2765/38763

Frankel, J., Rose, A. (1998). The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria. The Economic Journal, 108(449), pp. 1009–1025, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00327

Frohm, E., Gunnella, V. (2017). Sectoral Interlinkages in Global Value Chains: Spillovers and Network Effects. ECB Working Paper, No. 2064, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb. wp2064.en.pdf

Gilchrist, S., Schoenle, R., Sim, J., Zakrajsek, E. (2015). Inflation Dynamics During the Financial Crisis. Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Serie,s, No. 2015–2012, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.012.

Giudice, G., Hanson, J., Kontolemis, Z. (2018). Economic Resilience in EMU. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 17(2), pp. 9–15, https://doi.org/10.2765/779042

Gorodnichenko, Y., Talavera, O., Sheremirov, V. (2015). Will E-Commerce Make Prices More Flexible? VoxEU, https://voxeu.org/article/e-commerce and-price-flexibility-new-evidence

Halmai P. (2019). Konvergencia és felzárkózás az euróövezetben. Közgazdasági Szemle, 66(6), 687–712. oldal, https://doi.org/10.18414/KSZ.2019.6.687

Halmai P. (2020). Mélyintegráció. A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió ökonómiája. Akadémiai Kiadó, Budapest

Jolles, M., Meyermans, E. Kostolemis, Z. (2018). Economic Resilience, the Single Marketand EMU: A Self-Reinforcing Interaction. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 17(1), pp. 7–22, https://doi.org/10.2765/574193

Juncker, J.-C., Tusk, D., Dijsselbloem, J., Draghi, M., Schulz, M. (2015). The Five President’s Report: Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. Background Documents on Economic and Monetary Union, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

Krugman, P., Venables, A. (1996). Integration, specialization, and Adjustment. European Economic Review, 40, pp. 959–967, https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00104-2

Lehndorff, S., Voss-Dahm, D. (2005). The Delegation Of Uncertainty: Flexibility and the Role of the Market in Service Work. In Bosch, G., Lehndorff, St. (eds) Working in the Servi ce Sector – a Tale from Different Worlds. Routledge, London and New York, pp. 289–315, https://0- library-oapen-org.catalogue.libraries.london.ac.uk/ bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/24051/1006081. pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Mankiw, N. (1985). Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100(2), pp. 529–539, https://doi.org/10.2307/1885395

Martin, R., Sunley, P. (2014). On the Notion of Regional Economic Resilience: Conceptualization and Explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 15(1), pp. 1–42, https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbu015

Meyermans, E., Uregian, C., Van Campenhout, G., Valiante, D. (2018). Completing the Capital Markets Union and its Impact on Economic Resilience in the Euro Area. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area, 17(4), pp. 27–39, EC DG ECFIN, Brussels, https://doi.org/10.2765/862807

Pelkmans, J., Acedo, L., Maravalle, A. (2008). How Product Market Reforms Lubricate Shock Adjustment in the Euro Area. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 341, https://doi.org/10.2765/95969

Pelkmans, J. (2016). What Strategy for a Genuine Single Market? CEPS Special Report, No. 126, https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id =9231&pdf=CEPS_SR%20No%20126%20 JP%20Genuine%20Single%20Market.pdf

Praet, P. (2014). The Financial Cycle and Real Convergence in the Euro Area. Speech at the Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the US and World Economies. Washington DC., https:// www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/ sp140410.en.html

Pulay Gy. Z., Simon J. (szerk.) (2019). A költ ségvetési előirányzatok rugalmasabb tervezésének és végrehajtásának lehetséges eszközei. Állami Szám vevőszék Budapest, EL-1101-011/201, https:// www.asz.hu/storage/files/files/elemzesek/2019/ rte_20190313.pdf?download=true

Rose, A. (2016). Measuring Economic Resilience to Disasters: an Overview. In IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience, Edited by EPFL International Risk Governance Center, Lausanne, v29-07-2016, https://beta.irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/ Rose-Measuring-Economic-Resilience-to-Disasters. pdf

Sauner-Leroy, J.-B. (2003). The Impact of the Implementation of the Single Market Programme on Productive Efficiency and on Mark-Ups in the European Union Manufacturing Industry. Euro pean Economy Economic Papers, No. 193, https:// ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/ publication845_en.pdf

Sondermann, D. (2016). Towards More Resilient Economies: The Role of Well-Functioning Economic Structures. ECB Working Paper, 1984, https://www. ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1984.en. pdf

Sutherland, D., Hoeller, P. (2013). Growth Promoting Policies and Macroeconomic Stability. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No 1091, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2362204

Tirole, J. (2017). Economics for the Common Good. Princeton, University Press

Valiante, D. (2016). Europe’s Untapped Capi tal Market: Rethinking Financial Integration After the Crisis. CEPS Paperback, London: Rowman & Littlefield International, https://www.ceps.eu/ download/publication/?id=9283&pdf=Capital%20 Markets%20Union_1.pdf

Vermeulen, Ph., Dias, D. A., Dossche, M., Gautier, E., Hernando, I., Sabbatini, R., Stahl, H. (2012). Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 44(8), pp. 1631–1650, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00547.x

Bundesregierung (2017). Priorities of the 2017 G20 Summit. Berlin, 1 December 2016 http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2017/2016-g20- praesidentschaftspapier-en.pdf

ECB (2015). Comparisons and Contrasts of the Impact of the Crisis on Euro Area Labour Markets. ECB Occasional Paper Series, 159, https://www.ecb. europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop159.en.pdf

EC (2016). Proposal for a Directive of the Euro pean Parliament and of the Council on Preventive Restructuring Frameworks, Second Chance and Measures to Increase the Efficiency of Restructuring, Insolvency and Discharge Procedures and Amending Directive 2012/30/EU, COM(2016) 723 final, https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST 15556-2018-INIT/en/pdf

EC (2017). Economic Forecasting. Autumn, Brussels, DG ECFIN https://doi.org/10.2765/786061 (online)

IMF (2017). Euro Area Policies, Selected Issues, Real Income Convergence in the Euro Area, pp. 4–14, https:// www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/ 07/25/Euro-Area-Policies-Selected-Issues-45122

##submission.downloads##

Megjelent

2021-03-30

Hogyan kell idézni

Halmai, P. (2021). Középpontban a reziliencia. A Gazdasági és Monetáris Unió mélyülésének egyes mechanizmusai. Pénzügyi Szemle, 66(1). Elérés forrás https://journals.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/index.php/penzugyiszemle/article/view/1253

Folyóirat szám

Rovat

Fókuszban a reziliencia