Is the Renminbi a Global Currency in the Making? Globalization of Digital yuan

Authors

  • Alwago Wycliffe Obwori University of Szeged

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2022_4_5

Keywords:

Renminbi, International monetary system, Reserve Currency, US-China economic rivalry, Digital yuan, F33, F5

Abstract

Since the global financial recession of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, the US economic supremacy has experienced setbacks. China has steadily grown into a dependable economic force across the globe, particularly in Asia. Is the renminbi on the verge of becoming a global currency given the financial domination setbacks of the US economy? In this critical review analysis, I contend that the dollar’s hegemonic position is at risk, but the political and economic climate does not appear to be ripe for renminbi globalization. The Chinese hawks see the economic sanctions levied against Russia following the Ukraine invasion as a chance to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Furthermore, China has benefited from the first-mover advantage through the launching of the Central Bank Digital Currency. However, China must gain the trust of foreign users in the robustness of its financial system, economy, and digital yuan’s functionality for the globalization of the digital yuan to be effective. Moreover, to promote renminbi internalization, China must ease capital regulations, increase renminbi convertibility, and restructure its financial system.

References

Aysan, A. F., Kayani, F. N. (2022). China’s transition to a digital currency does it threaten dollarization? Asia and the Global Economy, 2(1), 100023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2021.100023

Chandrasekhar, C. P., Ghosh, J. (2020). Bilateral Swaps in China’s Global Presence. Business Line, December 15

Chey, H. K. (2013). Can the renminbi rise as a global currency? The political economy of currency internationalization. Asian Survey, 53(2), pp. 348–368, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2013.53.2.348

Cohen, B. J. (2012). The benefits and costs of an international currency: getting the calculus right. Open Economies Review, 23(1), pp. 13–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9216-2

Cohen, B. J. (2017). Renminbi internationalization: a conflict of statecrafts. pp. 1–20. Chatham House

Dongsheng, D. (2020). The Economics and Politics of China’s Currency Internationalization. Global Asia, 15(2), pp. 58–64

Financial Times (2010). Mending Fences in Beijing and Tokyo. Szeptember 14

Greenwald, M. (2020). Digitizing the Dollar in the Age of COVID-19. New Atlanticist, 22

Gu, M. (2020). ‘China’s National Digital Currency DCEP/CBDC Overview’. Online: https://boxmining.com/author/michael/

He, D., McCauley, R. N. (2012). 10 Offshore Markets for the Domestic Currency: Monetary and Financial Stability Issues. The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy, p. 301, https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/9388.003.0017

Helleiner, E. (2008). ‘Below the State: Micro- Level Power’. In: D. Andrews (ed.) International Monetary Power, Ithaca: Cornell University Press

Kazer, W. (2015). China Factory Gauge Slips to Three-Year Low in August. The Wall Street Journal, 1.

Knoerich, J. (2021). China’s new digital currency: Implications for renminbi internationalization and the US Dollar. The (Near) Future of Central Bank Digital Currencies. pp. 145–166

Komlóssy, L., Körmendi, Gy., Ladányi, S. (2017). Út a piacorientált monetáris politika felé és a "New Normal" új monetáris politikai rendszere Kínában. Hitelintézeti Szemle. 16, 101. oldal

Lentner, C. (2016). A gazdasági válság hatása a globális, uniós és hazai szabályozási környezetre – különös tekintettel a felügyeleti elvekre. In Auer, Á. & Papp, T. (ed). A globális gazdasági válság hatása egyes jogintézményekre Magyarországon és az Európai Unióban: interdiszciplináris és összehasonlító elemzés. NKE Szolgáltató Nonprofit Kft: Budapest. 45–84. oldal

Li, A. H. (2015). The tumbled stock market, RMB devaluation, and financial reform in China. China Perspectives, 2015(2015/4), pp. 63–68, https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.6870

Lim, E. G. (2006). ‘The Euro’s Challenge to the Dollar’. IMF Working Paper 06/153. McMillan. of International Political Economy, 15(3): pp. 418–438. Press. Reserve Currency Competition’, mimeo, Április, https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451864137.001

Mallaby, S., Wethington, O. (2012). The future of the yuan: China’s struggle to internationalize its currency, Foreign Aff., 91, pp. 135

Mathews, J. A., Selden, M. (2018). China: The emergence of the Petroyuan and the challenge to US dollar hegemony, The Asia-Pacific Journal, 16(22/3), pp. 1–12

Panitch, L., Gindin, S. (2009). Finance and the American empire. In: American empire and the political economy of global finance pp. 17–47. Palgrave Macmillan, London

Patnaik, P. (2015). Devaluation of the Yuan. People›s Democracy, 3(1)

Paulson, H. M. (2020). The future of the dollar. Online: https://www.globalstrikemedia.com/uploads/3/7/7/4/37740703/the_future_of_the_dollar_foreign_affairs.pdf [Hozzáférés: 2021. október 10.]

Póra, A., Széplaki, V. (2022). Kína mint a feltörekvő piacok és fejlődő országok szuverénhitelezője, Pénzügyi Szemle, 67 (2), 196–212. oldal, https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2022_2_3

Riley, C., Yan, S. (2015). China’s stock market crashed in 2 minutes. CNNMoney. Online: http://money.CNN.com/2015/07/09/investing/chinacrash-in-two-minutes.

Rogoff, K. (2021). The US dollar’s hegemony is looking fragile. Guardian, Április 2, London

Siddiqui, K. (2015). Political Economy of Japan’s Decades-Long Economic stagnation. Equilibrium Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 10(4): pp. 9–39, https://doi.org/10.12775/equil.2015.033

Siddiqui, K. (2017). Financialization and Economic Policy: The Issues of Capital Control in the Developing Countries. World Review of Political Economy. 8 (4): pp. 564–589, winter, https://doi.org/10.13169/worlrevipoliecon.8.4.0564

Siddiqui, K. (2019). The US Economy, Global Imbalances and Recent Development: A Critical Review. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 69(2), pp. 175–205, https://doi.org/10.26650/istjecon2019-0027

Siddiqui, K. (2020a). The US Dollar and the World Economy: A critical review. Athens Journal of Economics and Business, 6(1): pp. 21–44. Január, https://doi.org/10.30958/ajbe.6-1-2

Siddiqui, K. (2020b). Can Global Imbalances Continue? The State of the United States Economy”. Argumenta Oeconomica Cracoviensia, 23(2): pp. 11–32, https://doi.org/10.15678/aoc.2020.2301

Siddiqui, K. (2021). The Bilateral Swap Agreements, Chinese Currency, and the Demise of The Us Dollar. World

Simes, D. (2020). China and Russia ditch the dollar in a move towards a ‘financial alliance’. Financial Times, 17

Sitek, P. (2021). Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves of the European Central Bank. Przegląd Prawa i Administracji, 127, pp. 499–512, https://doi.org/10.19195/0137-1134.127.33

Spence, P. (2015). China’s Stock Market Crash: Five Numbers You Need to Know. The Telegraph, 31. Online: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11772729/Chinas-stockmarket-crash-five-numbers-you-need-to-know.html

Subacchi, P. (2010). ‚One Currency, Two Systems’: China’s Renminbi Strategy. London: Chatham House.

Subacchi, P. (2016). The people’s money: How China is building a global currency. Columbia University Press

Szilágyi, J. (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative: China’s Grand Strategy to Become a Real Superpower. Dilemmas and Challenges of the Chinese Economy in the 21st Century: Economic Policy Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative, pp. 27–66

Wang, H. (2021). China Meets Digital Currency: E-CNY and Its Implications for Businesses. Law Gazette, Online: https://lawgazette.com.sg/feature/china-meets-digital-currency-e-cny-andits-implications-for-businesses/ [Hozzáférés: 2022. december 6.]

Wei, L., Trivedi, A. (2015). China Boosts Efforts to Keep Money at Home. The Wall Street Journal, 1

Xie, J. (2020). ‘China’s Digital Currency Takes Shape; Will It Challenge Dollar?’. In: Voice of America. 2020. április 25, Online: https://www.voanews.com/economy-business/Chinas-digitalcurrency- takes-shape-will-it-challenge-dollar

Yao, S., Luo, D. (2008). Chinese stock market bubble: inevitable or incidental? The University of Nottingham

Zhang, B., Wang, S., Wei, Y., Zhao, X. (2021). Impact of the RMB Joining the SDR Basket on Its Internationalization from the Perspective of Risk Spillover. Journal of Systems Science and Complexity, 34(1), pp. 339–350, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11424-020-9215-8

Zhou, C. (2020). ‘China’s Digital Currency Edges Closer with Large-Scale Test by Four State-Owned Banks’. South China Morning Post, 2020. augusztus 6.

IMF (2020). World Economic and Financial Surveys. Online: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2021/April/weoreport?c=924,111,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,&sy=2020&ey=20 26&ssm=0&scsm=0&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic= 0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1 [Hozzáférés: 2022. november 23.]

IMF (2021). US Dollar share of global foreign exchange reserve drops to a 25-year low. Online: https://blogs.imf.org/2021/05/05/us-dollar-shareof-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low/ [Hozzáférés: 2022. november 23.]

IMF (2022). Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange-(COFER). Online: https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4 [Hozzáférés: 2022. november 17.]

Newsweek. (2021). “Will the US Dollar Lose Its Place as the World’s No. 1 Reserve Currency?”, New York. Online: https://www.newsweek.com/will-us-dollar-lose-its-place-worlds-no-1-reservecurrency-1567224 .[Hozzáférés: 2022. május 19.]

People’s Bank of China, (PBOC, 2021). RMB Internalization Report. Online: http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688172/4157443/4433239/2021122809344466286.pdf

Published

2022-12-16

How to Cite

Wycliffe Obwori, A. (2022). Is the Renminbi a Global Currency in the Making? Globalization of Digital yuan. Public Finance Quarterly, 67(4), 553–566. https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2022_4_5

Issue

Section

Focus – Central Bank digital currency