A CDS-felárak ambivalens változása az eurózóna 11 országában
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2022_1_6Kulcsszavak:
CDS-felár, bruttó államadósság, bruttó külső adósság, korreláció, hierarchikus klaszterezés, E44, F45, H63Absztrakt
A Covid–19-járvány egyik makrogazdasági következménye az, hogy a világgazdaságban robusztusan növekedtek az országok bruttó külső adósságai és az ennek részét képező szuverén államadósságok is. E hatás alól az eurózóna tagországai sem tudták magukat kivonni. A bruttó külső adósságok és a szuverén államadósságok növekedése egyben azt is jelenti, hogy elméletileg kockázatosabbá vált az adósságokat finanszírozó értékpapírok (jellemzően kötvények) vásárlása a befektetők számára. Teoretikusan ebből viszont az következik, hogy az országkockázatok növekedésének következményeként a CDS-ek felárainak is emelkedniük kellett. A tanulmány korrelációszámítással mutatja ki azt, hogy a CDSek árának alakulása szorosabban korrelál a bruttó államadóssággal, mint a bruttó külső adóssággal. A hierarchikus klaszteranalízis módszerével csoportokba rendezi a tanulmány az eurózóna országait. A klaszterberendezés alapja az, hogy mennyire szoros kapcsolata van az adott ország bruttó államadóssága és CDS-felára között a vizsgált időszakban. Releváns következtetése a tanulmánynak, hogy a bruttó államadósság növekedését nem követte a CDS-felárak emelkedése azért, mert az államadósság növekedésének a pénzügyi forrása más volt, mint a korábbi években.
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