Post-COVID learning loss and the collapse of the education-economy link in Bulgaria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14267/1588970X.2026.011Keywords:
COVID-19, educational inequality, matriculation exams, statistical inference in education, panel regressions, I21, I24, O15Abstract
This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the relationship between educational outcomes and regional economic indicators in Bulgaria and the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. Using panel data from all 28 Bulgarian Nomenclature of Territorial Units of Statistics (NUTS) 3 regions between 2015 and 2024, we analyse weighted matriculation exam scores in con-junction with macroeconomic variables, including Gross Domestic Product per capita, internet access and share of educated population. The post-pandemic learning loss weakened the previously strong correlation between regional economic wealth and academic achievement, exposing structural inequalities. We find limited evidence that digital infrastructure improved outcomes, especially in marginalised regions. Furthermore, our findings indicate a persistent learning loss following the COVID-19 pandemic, with exam performance declining by up to 0.29 points (approximately 0.38 to 0.447 standard deviations) in 2021–2022, followed by a full recovery in 2024. We argue that learning losses were already happening before COVID-19, with an average magnitude of 0.01–0.03 standard deviations, with some years reaching as much as 0.1 standard deviations.
References
Akresh, R., & de Walque, D. (2008). Armed conflict and schooling: Evidence from the 1994 Rwandan genocide (IZA Discussion Paper No. 3516). Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). https://ftp.iza.org/dp3516.pdf
Andrabi, T., Daniels, B., & Das, J. (2023). Human capital accumulation and dis asters. Journal of Human Resources, 58(4), 1057–1096. https://doi.org/10.3368/ jhr.59.2.0520-10887R1
Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups esti mators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431–434. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1987.mp49004006.x
Az-buki. (2024, June 7). Vipusk 2024 s nay-dobri rezultati, otkakto se provezh dat maturi [Class of 2024 with the best results since state exams began]. Az buki. https://azbuki.bg/news/novini-2024/vipusk-2024-s-naj-dobri-rezultati otkakto-se-provezhdat-maturi/
Banerjee, A. V., Cole, S., Duflo, E., & Linden, L. (2007). Remedying education: Evidence from two randomised experiments in India. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 122(3), 1235–1264. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.3.1235
Betthäuser, B. A., Bach-Mortensen, A. M., & Engzell, P. (2023). A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence on learning during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Human Behaviour, 7(3), 375–385. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41562-022-01506-4
Blaskó, Z., da Costa, P., & Schnepf, S. V. (2022). Learning losses and educa tional inequalities in Europe: Mapping the potential consequences of the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of European Social Policy, 32(4), 361–375. https://doi. org/10.1177/09589287221091687
Bolton, L. (2013). Time taken for inputs into education or policy reform to affect learn ing outcomes: Helpdesk report. Department for International Development, Health & Education Advice & Resource Team (HEART). https://assets.publish ing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08a00ed915d3cfd000532/Time-taken-for-educa tion-policy-and-programmes-to-affect-and-learning-outcomes.pdf
Chowdhury, A., & Dixon, H. (2025). Energy expenditures and CPI inflation in 2022: Inflation was even higher than we thought. Energy Economics, 145, 108482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108482
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Law rence Erlbaum Associates. Dautbašić, A., & Bećirović, S. (2022). Teacher and student experiences in online classes during COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. MAP Social Sciences, 2(1), 9–17. https://doi.org/10.53880/2744 2454.2022.2.1.9
Di Pietro, G. (2023). The impact of COVID-19 on student achievement: Evidence from a recent meta-analysis. Educational Research Review, 39, 100530. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.edurev.2023.100530
Dobos, I., & Bánhidi, Z. (2025). Where Central and Eastern European countries stand in terms of digital readiness. Society and Economy, 47(1), 66–84. https:// doi.org/10.1556/204.2024.00012
Eynon, R., & Geniets, A. (2015). The digital skills paradox: How do digitally excluded youth develop skills to use the internet? Learning, Media and Tech nology, 41(3), 463–479. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439884.2014.1002845
European Commission. (2024). Ninth report on economic, social and territorial cohesion. Publications Office of the European Union. https://ec.europa.eu/ regional_policy/information-sources/cohesion-report_en
Eurostat. (2021). Regional GDP per capita ranged from 32% to 260% of the EU average in 2019. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ ddn-20210303-1
Eurostat. (2024). PPPs for GDP in 2023: Flash estimates now available. https:// ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20240326-1
Gelman, A. (2008). Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard devia tions. Statistics in Medicine, 27(15), 2865–2873. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.3107
Huang, X. (2019). Understanding Bourdieu: Cultural capital and habitus. Review of European Studies, 11(3), 45–49. https://doi.org/10.5539/res.v11n3p45
Huong, L. T., & Na-Jatturas, T. (2020, May 18). The COVID-19-induced learning loss – What is it and how it can be mitigated? The Education and Development Forum. https://www.ukfiet.org/2020/the-covid-19-induced-learning-loss-what-is-it and-how-it-can-be-mitigated/
Imdorf, C., Ilieva-Trichkova, P., Stoilova, R., Boyadjieva, P., & Gerganov, A. (2022). Regional and ethnic disparities of school-to-work transitions in Bulgaria. Edu cation Sciences, 12(4), 233. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci12040233
Kovács, K., Dobay, B., Halasi, S., Pinczés, T., & Tódor, I. (2024). Demands, resources and institutional factors in the work of academic staff in Central and Eastern Europe: Results of a qualitative research among university teach ers in five countries. Frontiers in Education, 8, 1326515. https://doi.org/10.3389/ feduc.2023.1326515
Krumova, T., & Kolev, D. (2021). The distance learning in Bulgaria over the past school year: What has happened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interna tional Journal of Roma Studies, 3(3), 322–334. https://doi.org/10.17583/ijrs.9355
Lichand, G., Dória, C. A., Neto, O. L., & Cossi, J. (2021). The impacts of remote learning in secondary education: Evidence from Brazil during the pandemic (Preprint). Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-568605/v1
Mitescu-Manea, M., Safta-Zecheria, L., Neumann, E., Bodrug Lungu, V., Milenk ova, V., & Lendzhova, V. (2021). Inequities in first education policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis: A comparative analysis in four Central and East Euro pean countries. European Educational Research Journal, 20(5), 543–563. https:// doi.org/10.1177/14749041211030077
OECD. (2021). The state of global education: 18 months into the pandemic. OECD Pub lishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/1a23bb23-en
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (CESifo Working Paper No. 1229). CESifo. https://www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publi cations/2004/working-paper/general-diagnostic-tests-cross-section-depend ence-panels
Sacerdote, B. (2012). When the saints go marching out: Effects of Hurricanes Kat rina and Rita on student evacuees (NBER Working Paper No. 14385). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14385
Storey, N., & Zhang, Q. (2024). A meta-analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on student achievement. Educational Research Review, 44, 100624. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.edurev.2024.100624
Szécsi, D., & Szunomár, Á. (2024). PISA score as an inappropriate measure for growth? Empirical evidence from East Asia. Society and Economy, 46(3), 305 321. https://doi.org/10.1556/204.2024.00004
Topalska, R. (2021). Education during a state of emergency. TEM Journal, 10(1), 401–404. https://doi.org/10.18421/TEM101-50
van Deursen, A. J. A. M., & Helsper, E. J. (2015). The third-level digital divide: Who benefits most from being online? In L. Robinson, S. R. Cotten, J. Schulz, T. M. Hale, & A. Williams (Eds.), Communication and information technologies annual (Vol. 10, pp. 29–52). Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi. org/10.1108/S2050-206020150000010002
Zamfirov, M. Z., Stefanova-Bakracheva, M. A., Kolarova, T. D., Sofronieva, E. N., & Blazieva, M. L. (2020). Неприсъствена форма на обучение в условията на COVID-19 [Working and learning online during COVID-19]. Образование и технологии [Education and Technologies], 11(1), 91–98. https:// doi.org/10.26883/2010.201.2212
Zdravkov, S., & Ilieva-Trichkova, P. (2025). Participation in online courses from the perspective of Bourdieu’s cultural capital theory: A European compara tive study. European Education, 57(3), 209–227. https://doi.org/10.1080/1056493 4.2025.2531529
Additional Files
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
All articles published in the journal are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY) 4.0 international license agreement and published open access, making them immediately and freely available to read and download. The CC-BY license agreement allows authors to retain copyright while allowing others to copy, distribute, and make some uses of the work.
Users have the right to copy, distribute and transmit an article, adapt the article and make commercial use of the article. The CC BY license permits commercial re-use of an open access article, as long as the author is properly attributed. This license permits, distribution and reproduction in any medium provided by the original work is properly cited.
Suitable reference form: Title of Article, Author, Journal Title, Volume, Issue.
If and when the manuscript is accepted for publication by the journal, the authors agree to automatically transfer the first right of publication to the journal, and permit the journal to apply a DOI to their articles and to archive them in databases and indexes. Copyrights for articles are retained by the authors.
