The downfall of Daesh in the Middle East and implications for global security

Abstract

Territorial losses of Daesh, or the Islamic State (IS), in Iraq and Syria have led many to conjure the demise of the global terrorist organization. Conditions on ground, however, are ripe for the recuperation of the organization. The presence of extra-regional players, the widening Shia-Sunni divide, the failure of Iraqi and Syrian governments to stabilize the conflict-hit regions and a timely decision by Daesh to activate its sleeper cells in different parts of Europe, Asia and Africa could very much benefit the organization in recovering from battlefield losses or heralding the fourth wave of global jihad. This, then, could further augment the global implications of the rise of IS, including revival of Cold War era “proxy-ism”, refugee crises leading to fissures among the community of European nations, the intensification of the sectarian conflict in the Muslim world and “lone wolf” terrorism in the West. The paper seeks to map the possibility of Daesh’s recuperation in light of the “terrorist lifecycle” and how this would impact the global peace in general, and in South Asia in particular.